THE STEWART REPORT HOTLINE
Sunday, August 20, 2006
(Next HotLine Planned for Sunday, August 27, 2006)
OVERVIEW:
In the financial markets, very few events occur in a regular pattern
or with a reliable measure. Quite the opposite. On Wall Street, events
of great significance usually come in waves. Relative to all three
of our positions, I strongly anticipate the upcoming waves of news
to be almost tidal.
It has been a long time coming, so it’s strange that it should
all come at once. However, it’s clear to me that each of our
stocks is on the threshold of attaining critical mass. Because of
this, I believe that we, as investors, are standing on the edge of
a great transition. Accordingly, The Stewart Report will
accommodate its subscriber/members by transitioning as well. Beginning
with this HotLine and continuing on – probably through the next
four or five editions – look for a new message every seven to
ten days.
This will be necessary because, at present, all three companies appear
to be exceptionally close to finalizing a number of long-term efforts.
The nature of these efforts varies, of course, from company to company.
However, they include extremely important projects like large contract
negotiations, the attainment of valuable international trade certificates,
independent research reports authored by powerful equity firms, new
products that are very nearly developed, millions in favorable funding
for research and growth, new patents, new partnerships, etc., etc.
In short, virtually everything now presently up in the air is about
to land – and land profitably.
At least that’s my sense of it.
Periods such as this are not all that frequent, but they sure are
money makers. The last time I witnessed the concurrent gelling of
this many events affecting this many of our stocks was probably eight
years ago, when Y2K created so many quick opportunities. As a consequence,
the companies I followed generated a large and rapid stream of press
releases to report on. In the coming weeks, that’s precisely
what I expect will be coming from Amarillo Biosciences, Emergency
Filtration Products and International Card Establishment,
Inc.
If I’m right about all the pending news – and if I allow
that news to accumulate – we’ll miss a number of opportunities.
Besides, when I allow too many events to stack up, HotLines become
a daunting task for me to write – and a marathon event for you
to read. So, out of necessity – as well as greed and avarice
– The Stewart Report will return to the previously
successful strategy of producing brief, but frequent advisories covering
all stocks every issue. I’ll begin with your best short-term
opportunity:
EMERGENCY FILTRATION PRODUCTS, INC. (Nasdaq/BB: EMFP –
$1.10) – STRONG BUY
I can’t believe you guys! I take off to play at Pebble Beach;
I’m gone for just a week. And, when I get back to the office,
what do I see? EMFP at 87 cents – and for no reason at all.
Not a good one, anyway.
My personal paper loss aside, the thing I found most disturbing is
that the selling at the non-professional level was largely due to
a number of dilettantes who got spooked by some bogus, sour-grapes
chat-room comments made on “Raging Bull” – which,
in this particular instance, should more aptly be titled “Raving
Bull,” because that’s all it was: A bunch of bull!
A small renegade dealer for EMFP, who was retailing masks on the
Internet and collecting via PayPal®, came to be in arrears to
the Company for approximately $110,000. Fortunately, EMFP’s
attorneys were able to put a lien on this guy’s PayPal®
account and recover about 90% of the debt. So, what does this character
do next? Stupidly, he switches to an inferior mask and sets out to
say entirely rude, completely unnecessary and totally untrue things
about the Company, its products and CEO Doug Beplate. The Company
had no choice but to slap him with a defamation of character suit.
I spoke with Doug yesterday, and he said, “The salad days are
behind us. We don’t have to take this crap from anybody. There’s
no doubt in my mind we will win the suit, clean his clock and take
him for everything he’s got – and then some. For now,
the important thing is that we got most of our money back. Also, we
have successfully shut him down – and shut him up.”
The timing of this hiccup couldn’t have been worse because
it dispersed a shadow of doubt on the Company’s other $3.4 million
in accounts receivable. Granted, if the Company was doing $40 million
in sales, having $3.4 million outstanding would be no big deal. But,
as it stands, for the first six months the Company did just over $4
million, so the $3.4 million is proportionately monstrous. But publicly,
privately and in print, Doug, his accountants and legal counsel all
agree the receivables are easily collectable and will be paid in full
when they are due.
The only reason the amount collectable is such a high percentage
of net sales is because Doug thought it was only fair that EMFP grant
its international dealers favorable terms. After all, he said, the
dealers had been forced to wait for supplies because the Company was
slow in making good on the massive overnight influx of orders while
it scrambled to tool up its manufacturing effort. That’s now
done. Also, EMFP’s dealers were experiencing certain across-the-border
paper problems in making their overseas sales legally perfect. In
short, everybody needed more time – and EMFP used its new financial
resources to provide it.
Bottom Line: One highly superficial setback involving
one of its smallest dealers stole the fire from a record-breaking
second-quarter and six-month earnings release – even though
the fly-sized problem was quickly squashed. No matter. In my mind,
it only served to cull weak investors from the herd and create a buying
opportunity for the rest of us. Although that buying opportunity was
more attractive Friday morning, before the stock rocketed 27 cents
higher on more than 600,000 shares, I believe both the price action
and share volume validate and vindicate everything I just mentioned.
It also serves to signal a clear reversal and a blazing green-light
opportunity. BUY this stock – and be neither casual nor tardy
in your action. I will personally be a buyer at some time early Monday.
AMARILLO BIOSCIENCES, INC. (Nasdaq/BB: AMAR – $0.80)
BUY
By now, I think most of you know this story inside out so there’s
not much point in repeating it. Either you get it – or you don’t.
Fortunately, in addition to all the new investors and new money derived
from sources close to the Company, serious interest outside our group
continues to grow. Plus, others are now telling the AMAR story. Specifically,
knowledgeable sources say a couple of very large investment firms
in New York have taken a keen interest in AMAR’s intellectual
property and may be writing it up. I’ve also heard that an enormous,
multi-million dollar investment into the Company might be in the works.
If this is true, Amarillo President and CEO Dr. Joe Cummins would
have enough money to complete every FDA study he wants. That could
greatly expand the overall market for interferon, taking it well beyond
Bird Flu to include all of the other diseases – both human and
animal – that interferon might successfully address and help
conquer.
In the meantime, Joe tells me a recent follow-up study using mice
has validated earlier findings by Amarillo associate Dr. Manfred Beilharz
confirming interferon’s effectiveness in influenza suppression.
The study was conducted at Beilharz’ Nobel Prize winning Department
of Biomedical, Biomolecular and Chemical Sciences at The University
of Western Australia.
The successful studies should promote more widespread interest in
testing low-dose oral interferon as a low-cost preventative measure
against Bird Flu – and promote even greater interest in the
stock. I, of course, am already interested, as evidenced by my holdings
of roughly 200,000 shares – and I encourage you to increase
your interest as well. BUY.
INTERNATIONAL CARD ESTABLISHMENT, INC. (Nasdaq/BB: ICRD –
$0.18) – BUY
Here, too, I foresee a number of press releases in coming weeks. Most
will likely validate the projections and plans outlined in the Company’s
two prior news announcements, all of which can now be implemented
thanks to ICRD’s successful recent issuance of a non-dilutionary
$1 million interest-only note.
Cost-cutting is also in full force, with Chairman Bill Lopshire and
all other members of general management limiting their personal salaries
to just $3,000 per month – about what a secretary here in Orange
County is paid.
The new business plan is now so firmly directed, reasonably financed
and entirely doable that, for me, the attainment of recent objectives
is a near certainty. Specifically, that means the Company should turn
cash flow positive in the current Q3 – and turn the entire operation
profitable during Q4.
As for Q2, those numbers should be released sometime this week. Until
that information is made public, there’s no point in me phoning
Bill – I doubt he’d even he’d answer. No matter.
If there are any surprises, they’ll likely be to the upside
– and I’ll look forward to reporting them in the next
issue.
CONCLUSION:
The current situation is very exciting because the soon-to-be realized
scenarios at all three companies are far from adequately reflected
in current share prices. Not even close. Individually, each of these
companies is engaged in a multi-billion-dollar industry. And yet,
the total market capitalization of all three combined is less than
$70 million.
It simply doesn’t equate.
Here we are with three outstanding enterprises. Each is highly unique
to its own field. Each is selling for a fraction of the capital used
in its building process. And all are now perfectly positioned to emerge
from the ranks of the “developmental stage” and achieve
true “emerging-growth” status. Although each of the stocks
is noticeably higher than nearly all of my recommended buy points
over the last 18 months, the fact is that all three are today selling
for about half their respective 52-week highs.
Times of transition are the best times to buy a company’s shares
– and these three should be bought now. Buy all three, as a
group, and I’ll bet you will double the value of your portfolio
in less than six months.
ONE FINAL NOTE:
If you’re not aware, we’re still trying to rebuild our
subscriber/member e-mail list. If you are presently listening to the
audio version of the HotLine, please send your e-address to us at
StewartReport.com. If you are reading this HotLine on the Internet
but would also like access to the audio format, kindly dial 949-583-6057
and enter the pass code at the prompt. That number is currently 66.
As always, thank you for subscribing.
J. David Stewart
Analyst and Publisher, The Stewart Report
Information contained herein has been obtained from
sources believed to be reliable, but there is no guarantee as to completeness
or accuracy. Any opinions expressed herein are statements of our judgment
on this date and are subject to change without notice. J. David Stewart
owns 150,000 common shares of International Card Establishment, Inc.
David has also subscribed to purchase an additional 100,000 ICRD shares
Restricted under Rule 144. J. David Stewart also owns 100,000 shares
of Amarillo Biosciences, Inc., common stock and another 100,000 shares
of Amarillo Biosciences Restricted under Rule 144. J. David Stewart
and affiliates of The Stewart Report may also have other long or short
positions in these and other securities discussed herein, including
warrants and/or options, and may buy or sell same at their own discretion.
This report contains or may contain forward-looking statements within
the meaning of the "safe-harbor" provisions of the US Private
Securities Litigation Reform Act of 1995. This report is intended
for informational purposes only and does not have regard for or take
into consideration the reader's investment objective, financial situation
or suitability for this security. Consult with your financial advisor
and perform your own due diligence. Copyright © The Stewart Report,
2006.