THE STEWART REPORT HOTLINE SUMMARY
Monday, August 16, 2004
Next HotLine Recording Scheduled for Labor Day, Monday, September
6, 2004
-- And Will Feature Amarillo Biosciences --
________________________________________________________________________________
Overview:
Last night I went to Blockbuster and rented “Where the Buffalo
Roam” – which, if you haven’t seen it, is based
on the various exploits of Dr. Hunter S. Thompson. It stars Bill Murray
and Peter Boyle – and the music is by Neil Young, so you know
it’s good. Especially if you appreciate the counter-culture
work of Hunter Thompson himself. Clearly, many of his infamous exploits
were based on some form of reality, but most of what he wrote was
just highly embellished gibberish. Not that it mattered because it
was all so incredibly well written.
Anyway, there’s this one scene where he’s with his attorney,
Carl Lazlos. Lazlos is rattling off a whole roster of now-famous,
super-serious human rights violations occurring in the Haight-Ashbury
district of 1969, for a story that Thompson was doing for The Rolling
Stone. The attorney was very, very specific, citing their precise
relevance to various laws, from the U.S. Constitution and the Bill
of Rights all the way down, case by case, to San Francisco city codes.
After having written so many frivolous and largely fictitious –
albeit highly acclaimed – stories, Thompson’s response
was, “Humm … a basis in reality. This could be good.”
And that’s where I had to laugh, not only at Thompson, but
at myself, because even though Stewart Reports, per se, contain as
many facts as are legally available, the last couple of HotLines have
been – out of sheer necessity – mostly philosophical.
After all, if the companies don’t report any news, there’s
no news for me to report either.
Ordinarily, dry spells are irrelevant. Actually, they are to be expected.
That’s why The Stewart Report has no publication schedule. We
know you can only look for new stock ideas – you can’t
force them. But HotLines are supposed to be different … more
predictable; more regular, same as the usual flow of news announcements
that can generally be counted on. However, lacking any real stream
of concrete data to report on, the last several HotLines have made
me feel more like a professor than a professional. I’ve attempted
to give relevance and theoretical value to tax strategies, contrarian
theory, fundamental and technical analysis, the political and economic
outlook, etc., etc. I’ve quoted Buffett and Geist, recommended
outside reading, more etc., etc.
All in all, it was more than “filler” but less than fascinating
– and certainly not as financially fact oriented as we’ve
all come to expect ... Until now! I still don’t have a Neil
Young soundtrack but, like Thompson, I do now have a grin on my face
because I’m about to report on something with “a basis
in reality. This could be good.” And most of it is, beginning
with:
USA Biomass Corp. (NASDAQ/BB: USBCQ): 5 cents
This one has certainly tried our patience, but I still insist there
will be a great profit. Financially speaking, even though it’s
out of bankruptcy, it’s not out of the woods. With that as a
thesis statement, let me now offer the litany of good/bad articles
and items as they currently stand.
On the good side of our ledger, we’ve seen recent revenues
do nothing but rise. Using round numbers, March revenues were $325,000,
April came in at $350,000 and May’s top line was $365,000. At
about that same time, it was determined that USA Biomass’s monthly
operating expenses were $325,000 – meaning, of course, that
we’d not only emerged from Chapter 11, but broken into black-ink
territory, too. Also in May, Abrams, the Company’s accounting
firm, signed off on the 2000, 2001 and 2002 year-end numbers. This
pleased investors and the SEC no end. And the good-news side of the
equation, particularly with regard to revenues, continues. Unaudited
figures for June were $411,000. July has yet to be tabulated, but
it’s believed those revenues will be as good or better.
But now I must once again rewind, back to May, when the Company was
believed to be profitable – and yet, for some inexplicable reason,
President Peter Gyben and others loyal to the operation were occasionally
having to write personal checks to keep corporate ones from bouncing.
So an independent operations expert was brought in and quickly determined
that the actual “monthly nut” was not $325,000 (as originally
believed), but $395,000 instead. So there’s some of the bad
news. Back to some more of the good news: Obviously, with expenses
in the high $300’s and sales now in the low $400’s, we
are once again looking at profitability – however marginal it
may be.
On the concluding side of this saga, we have a true Catch 22. The
Company could be doing much more business if it had a little more
money. To get that money, it needs to have the 2003 numbers, as well
as Q1 and Q2 audited. To get the audit performed, it needs money to
pay the auditor. And around and around it goes. Like I said, it’s
a true Catch 22.
Fortunately, we’re only talking pennies – even by penny
stock standards. A mere $150,000 would make this thing right as rain,
and me and all the other shareholders happy as hell. That’s
why, long term, I’m not at all worried.
Near term – say 30 days – Gyben promised me that the
very first profits will go to pay the convertible debenture holders
(most, if not all, of whom are Stewart subscribers). Soon after, approximately
$10,000 will be forwarded to the transfer agent so those of us who
invested in the 12-cent shares can be mailed their certificates. In
the Wall Street world of lead-pipe cruelty, it’s nice to see
someone do the right thing – even if it’s probably not
the best immediate use of funds.
As for some final conjecture on my part, I know a couple of very
well-heeled investors who own not only a ton of USA Biomass Corp.,
but scores of shares in International Card Establishment, as well.
When ICRD hits $3, something tells me they’ll lighten the load
and parlay some of those profits into the full resurrection of the
USA venture. BUY, but only using limit orders placed at the bid.
International Card Establishment, Inc. (NASDAQ/BB: ICRD): 95 cents
Still my favorite venue for aggressive growth funds, ICRD is performing
within the equally aggressive expectations outlined in the original
Stewart Report. The essential premise of that document was high-gear
growth through acquisitions and international expansion.
With respect to the latter, the Company announced that it has signed
11 new independent sales organizations – nine in the United
States and two in Canada. For legal reasons, an aggregate dollar value
and the cumulative effect on ICRD’s income statement were not
assigned because each of the agents is independent (as opposed to
publicly traded) so their individual financial statements are not
audited. For competitive reasons, their names were not mentioned either.
No matter. The important thing is that International Card Establishment
continues its march into Canada, and continues to increase its role
as a card processor. Since ICRD’s overhead in that area is relatively
fixed, almost all new business is new money.
As for acquisitions, I’d be less than truthful if I failed
to say that I’m disappointed the Neos deal has not yet been
penned. But “yet” is the operative word. Do not be concerned.
There are no amateurs at this level of play. Smart attorneys on both
sides of the table – ours and theirs – are simply haggling
for the best deal possible. But I’m 90 percent sure there will
be a deal – which, incidentally, is about 10 percent more certain
than when I first wrote the Report. When it finally is official, the
stock will strike smartly to the upside.
Same as in the last HotLine, and the HotLine before that, there is
a semi-persistent short seller in the stock – even though the
transactions are clearly in violation of SEC regulations.
My attitude towards this matter is strangely ambivalent because,
even though he’s been the irritant responsible for the whipsawing
in this security and the one who pre-empted what would have otherwise
been a basic straight-line price ascension, his activity has given
us more than one opportunity to score some fast buy/sell profits such
as the 70 cent-to-$1.25 win a few weeks back.
Bottom line, his actions can only benefit us longer term. My securities
attorney is confident that, prosecution aside, he will not be able
to “find” the shares he’ll eventually need to cover
his short position. That means he’ll have to buy them back in
the open market. All of them. That in itself is a strong argument
to buy this stock, but it’s of comparatively little consequence
when the stock already has such wonderful fundamentals.
All in all, I guess you could say that a great deal has changed,
and also that nothing has changed at all. Overall, the upward spiral
sequence remains in motion; the business plan is working; the stock
remains in play. BUY. My original expectation of a very large long-term
win remains very much in place.
Emergency Filtration Products, Inc. (NASDAQ/BB: EMFP): 30 cents
Monday, August 9, EMFP President Doug Beplate was in San Diego to
present the Company’s proprietary, nano-enhanced 2H filter technology
to the U.S. Navy. A handful of other companies were there, too –
the best of the best . It was an invitation-only situation –
the military’s version of The Miss America Pageant.
Assuming EMFP’s technology is deemed the most viable, a pair
of prototypes will be built for the Navy to review. The entire process
is expected to take just one month. One of the prototypes will incorporate
EMFP’s proprietary nano-technology process. This is a filter
with such outstanding preventive characteristics that virtually nothing
can get past – including anthrax.
The military envisions a large number of applications including,
but not limited to: biohazard masks; transportation filters for use
in aircraft, tanks and armored personnel carriers; and building ventilation
systems to protect military installations, industrial complexes and
the air in office situations such as the White House or the Pentagon.
But that’s just the short list. The independent laboratories
of RDECON reviewed EMFP’s potential and scientifically identified
just over 1,000 uses for its highly differentiated filters.
Assuming the successful completion of prototype development and testing
(which, as I said, is expected to take one month or less), the filter
products would then be produced by a U.S. Navy-approved manufacturer.
In simplest terms, EMFP stockholders would sit back and watch military-sized
unit sales turn into royalty checks, and royalty checks turn into
per-share earnings. The stock would have no choice but to sit up,
take off and fly.
Two obvious, yet critical observations can be made relative to all
of the above:
1. The very fact that EMFP was selected to present its 2H nano-technology
speaks volumes. The selection process to this point was rigorous.
Multibillion-dollar organizations like the United States government
do not focus this kind of time or energy on small, tinker-toy technologies.
It’s just not feasible. Capital expenditures can only be considered
at an Empire level … It’s King Kong or nothing.
2. Despite my growing expectation (and anticipation) of the Navy
choosing Emergency Filtration’s nano-enhanced, 2H technology
over all other rivals, do not expect to see any immediate reflection
in the stock … not up, not down, not sideways. True, it’s
an important presentation. A dog and pony show, if you will. However,
Wall Street types were very intentionally, and very specifically NOT
invited. It’s a clandestine affair – a tribunal if you
will. Only U.S military executives in command of some of the planet’s
larger checkbooks were allowed though the door. As with a closed Congressional
hearing, all private investors are persona non grata, so the value
of the presentation will never see the light of NASDAQ. At least not
until the formal contract is announced.
And that’s just the U.S. Navy.
Ironically, the U.S. Air Force, which was the last organized branch
of the military to see the technology, was the first to embrace it.
This thanks to a report by Nelson Laboratories, which said that EMFP’s
2H nano-technology was effective in protecting against virtually all
known airborne agents. To repeat, one of them was identified as anthrax.
Despite its irrefutable reputation as the most prestigious research
lab in America, military protocol for projects of this importance
are automatically second-guessed. As such, the U.S. Air Force will
super-validate the efficacy of EMFP’s filters at the United
States Army’s Edgewood Chemical Biological Center in Edgewood,
MD.
So now we have the Army, the Air Force and the Navy giving something
far greater than a mere cursory review of EMFP. The financial implications
are immense given that so much power is being focused on such a small
company. Remember, the technology is global, but the Company itself
is peanut sized – quintessential micro cap in the truest sense
of the word. Keep in mind, total market cap at today’s closing
price is just $8.3 million.
I remember a time when the stock sold for ten times today’s
price and all the Company offered then was a mask for police and ambulance
units. No nano-technology. No military interest. No war on terrorism.
No filters for aircraft or government buildings.
Now, at one tenth the price, with a highly marketable portfolio of
in-demand products – big demand – worth probably 100 times
the current market cap of the security, this is a true steal. And
forget about the patience of Job. The payday is at hand. Almost everything
now in the works will be decided and finalized in August or September.
Hell, my dad’s birthday is in one of those two months and I’m
betting it will take him that long just to blow out the candles.
And you know what the best part is? Thus far, I’ve only discussed
Uncle Sam. Official news releases aside, Doug gets real close-mouthed
relative to anything military. Anyone who knows Doug Beplate knows
that. Fortunately, commercial business is a bit less sensitive, so
that’s where most of our conversations are centered.
Interestingly, the last time I spoke with Doug was ten days ago,
when I’d first envisioned a HotLine but realized, as I explained
earlier, that a modest delay might enable me to provide a mountain
of information. It was 10:00 PM Pacific Daylight when I phoned his
Nevada office. Doug Beplate answered the phone, leaving me to believe
that he doubles as the night janitor, has no life – whatsoever
– or, as is more likely the truth, is exactly the kind of entrepreneurial
president I like to invest in. (Truth is, given the obscene number
of trips he’s made over the last 15 months – from America
to Asia and back, and then back again, and then back again and again,
he probably didn’t know what time it was anyway.)
That aside, I queried him as to the impending opportunity with Itochu
Chemical. Itochu Chemical is the wholly owned subsidiary of Itochu
Corp., an $85 billion conglomerate ranked by Forbes as the 11th largest
corporation in the world … yet another mammoth opportunity for
this micro-cap corporation.
Back in late February, a collaborative effort was penned by both
companies whereby Itochu would market EMFP filter product technologies
pending the necessary approval of regulatory bodies in both their
respective nations. Ironically, on the U.S. side of the fence, the
almost glacial FDA gave EMFP the necessary certificate in short order.
On the Asian side, however, government approval is still in process
– the approval needed for the minnow (Emergency Filtration Products,
Inc.) to collaborate with the whale (Itochu Chemical, Inc.).
With a parent doing $85 billion in revenues and a marketing network
spanning 80-plus nations, this in itself, could be a king-maker.
Bottom Line, everything I’ve said thus far I believe to be
fair and accurate. True, not one definitive contract has been signed
… yet. But the dazzling evidence before me is that some world-class
monsters on both sides of the Pacific, both public and private, both
military and civilian, seem to be working very hard to incorporate
Emergency Filtration nano-enhanced technology. I’d BUY this
thing with both fists. In fact, today I picked up 20,000 additional.
Note: Tell your broker, as I did, “Market Not Held.”
Only true professionals know this term – and half of them have
forgot what it means! But it shows respect, and it’s the execution
order I use most often, because you are simply telling the broker
that you want the shares purchased today, but you are giving him total
discretion as to the best moment and the best price possible.
Amarillo Biosciences (NASDAQ/BB: AMAR): 32 cents
I’ve seen paper routes with higher overheads.
This is one to accumulate. Easy for me to say, since earlier this
year I earned 250,000 shares as a consultant to the Company, though
they are restricted under Rule 144 as I have fully disclosed from
the outset. But I really believe in Dr. Joseph Cummins. Dr. Gordon
Segal, the physician who introduced me to the Company several years
ago, firmly believes in AMAR’s interferon technology, as do
many of his fellow doctor friends who also own shares. One of the
largest privately held biopharmaceutical companies in Japan is a major
stock holder, and has been, almost since inception – as do many
of its employees.
As to each of these statements, all of these beliefs and the entirety
of this backing, it should be noted that it all came years before
the War on Terrorism and our newfound recognition that the Al Quida
and other monster groups are constantly looking for new ways to destroy
our way of life. What better (or easier) way than to disrupt the nation’s
food supply?
In fact, they were each well in place before the outbreak of foot
and mouth disease in the UK which cost the nation $XX outright, not
to mention the reported 60-plus farmers who actually committed suicide
due to the outright destruction of their livelihood. And you might
also recall that small incident last year in Alberta, Canada. It involved
only a handful of infected cattle, and yet the shock wave to the American
food and restaurant industry took $xx billion out of related NYSE
listed shares in a single day?week). So here we are, looking at a
small Texas biotech with xx patents that’s the world’s
recognized leader in interferon technology and research that addresses
a number of global maladies on a number of different levels and …
get this … a total market capitalization of x.x million! Hell,
I have several friends with homes that cost more than the entire value
being placed on this Company at this time, and I’m not even
well-connected!
Percentage wise, at some point in time, this could be the biggest
stock you’ll ever buy. Accumulate, with reasonable patience
and firm limit orders.
As always, thank you for listening and for subscribing,
J. David Stewart
Analyst and Publisher, The Stewart Report