THE STEWART REPORT HOTLINE SUMMARY
Tuesday, December 28, 2004
Next HotLine Recording Scheduled for Saturday, January 22, 2005
____________________________________________________________________________________
Greetings Fellow Investors:
On behalf of everyone here at The Stewart Report, I’d like
to wish each and every one of you the very best in 2005. For our part,
we will do everything possible to help you achieve your financial
goals in the year ahead. And, it shouldn’t be too difficult:
Virtually all the elements we need to have a really big year are either
already in place, very close to completion or on the verge of being
announced.
As for the current holiday season, I hope you’re having a pleasurable
one, with lots of friends and family and food and football. My girlfriend
and I decided to spend ours on Catalina Island, so we took the boat
over here to Avalon. That’s where I am now. My Dad, who lives
in Oklahoma, can’t understand why I come here. In his mind,
why pay for a hotel room that overlooks the ocean when your office
is on Pacific Coast Highway and you live on the beach?
But it’s different here. For one thing, Avalon faces east,
while Dana Point faces the west. Because of this, it offers a very
different perspective of the sea. This is especially true in the early
morning as the sun is rising – particularly if you hike up to
the Wrigley Memorial. From there, he edifice the view of the ocean
is so uninterrupted that, as you look to the horizon, you can actually
see the curvature of the earth. It really puts you in your place.
In turn, that puts you in a mindset appropriate for pure thought.
So, for me, Catalina at Christmastime is a wonderfully serene place
to ponder and contemplate and review and plan – which is precisely
what I’ve been doing the past few days. During that time, I’ve
come up with a couple of pertinent observations:
For starters, I’ve confirmed my long-standing suspicion that
Santa Claus is probably just a myth. And, even if he does exist, the
man is absolutely clueless as to who’s been naughty and who’s
been nice. Take me for example…
Every year, I’m naughty – or, at least, I try to be.
Conversely, my girlfriend suffers from congenital nice-ness. She doesn’t
drink or smoke or kick dogs or trip small children or anything. She
runs every morning; watches public television at night. She’s
tolerant of slow drivers and stupid people, and is even respectful
of law enforcement. But, despite her goodie-two-shoes lifestyle, I’m
the one who got a Ferrari for Christmas. All Santa gave her was a
lousy mountain bike. Sure, it’s a really nice mountain bike,
but even the nicest ones don’t have throaty-sounding engines
or beefy exhaust pipes. So, I have to ask myself: What’s the
point of being good when life continually rewards dirty rotten scoundrels
such as myself?
Similarly, you are by now probably asking yourself: What’s
the point of this HotLine – and, if it does in fact have one,
will he ever make it? The answer is, “Yes, there is a point
to this HotLine – which is simply this:”
Life is unfair – and, for that, I will be forever grateful.
Equally unfair is the distribution of wealth. It always has been –
and always will be. But, the beautiful part – the part that’s
essentially fair and equitable – is the fact that, even after
money is distributed, it remains in a state of flux. Even cash that’s
locked up tight in safety-deposit boxes or the irrevocable trust funds
of undeserving idiots is always on the move. That’s because
the capital in a capitalist society is always looking for a better
home – a new place to deposit itself. And, because these movements
are somewhat predictable, you don’t have to inherit a single
dime to make several million. It’s easier said than done –
but it’s doable all the same.
That’s what I love most about this country. The equity markets
are essentially fair, the opportunities are absolutely unlimited and
they’re freely available to anyone with a heartbeat and a telephone.
If you’re with me so far, the big question to ask yourself is:
Where’s the capital currently – and, more importantly,
where is it headed in 2005? Here are my answers:
—Precious Metals. Platinum and chrome I can understand –
especially chrome (technically, chromium). These are two of the most
precious of precious metals – always in short supply, yet forever
in high demand for industrial purposes, particularly automotive. Gold
and silver, on the other hand, I just can’t see – not
in a modern, technology-based economy. If this is the ultimate store
of value, I’d rather shop at Wal-Mart. Gold is for grandparents,
not for me. Same for silver – which could only manage a double,
even after two decades of dormancy. The metals run is probably over.
That money will be heading elsewhere.
—Real Estate: Over time, it’s hard to go wrong with real
estate, particularly in America. We’re a nation of homeowners.
Always have been; always will be. So, the demand will always be there
– and, even when it wanes, tax laws and other incentives are
usually enhanced to make it more attractive. At present, the real
estate market – both residential and commercial – has
enjoyed a big run. Too big, in my opinion. These days, it seems as
though everybody and his mother has a newly minted real estate license.
Rank amateurs are speculating in multiple properties with little or
no money down, flipping them like pancakes. In the current property
market, the players and the prices are acting just as stock players
and prices did in late 1999 and early 2000, when cab drivers were
trading their hack permits for brokerage licenses and impetuous day
traders defined “long term” as just after the settlement
date. We all know what happened next.
Now I’m no real estate expert; just another dumb schmoe happy
to see his home triple in value in just six years. But the guys I
know who are professionals in the field, who have made millions, consistently,
year in and year out, tell me they stopped buying months ago and are
now dusting off the “For Sale” signs. For me, that’s
a sign in itself.
—Cash: Currently, one of the biggest homes for cash is cash
itself. Trillions of it is sitting on the sidelines, ready to make
a shift to something – anything, really – that might pay
better than the anemic rates offered by money-market accounts. Indeed,
the sum total of the nation’s cash and cash equivalents is probably
the strongest bull-market argument there is today. That’s especially
true if President Bush gets his way and American workers are given
the opportunity to invest at least a portion of their Social Security
contributions in equities. Any form of privatization in this trillion-dollar
arena would be a boon to the stock market – one as powerful
in potential as the adrenaline shot Reagan gave Wall Street around
1982 with the advent of IRA accounts.
—The Stock Market: The year-end rallies I said you could expect
just as soon as the elections were over – and regardless of
the victor – managed to drive the equity markets to their 2004
highs. However, even at 2,160, the NASDAQ isn’t even half as
high as it was in March 2000 when it reached its all-time high of
5,132. By comparison, the Dow Jones Industrial Average has regained
virtually everything it gave back. Currently, the DJIA is just 9 percent
away from its 2000 high of 11,750. To me, this suggests that the better
prices – as well as the bigger profits – will be scored
with the smaller stocks on NASDAQ.
And, of the 30,000 or so NASDAQ stocks from which to choose, there
are only three that I own. Only three that I fully understand and
appreciate. Only three that I’ll need to support my exotic car
habit and racing addiction. They are: Amarillo Biosciences (NASDAQ/BB:
AMAR) – 35 cents; Emergency Filtration Products, Inc. (NASDAQ/BB:
EMFP) – 33 cents; and International Card Establishment, Inc.
(NASDAQ/BB: ICRD) – 52 cents.
Together, these little gems have a combined market cap of approximately
$36 million. To put that in perspective, more than $37 million has
been invested in the development of Amarillo’s interferon-based
pharmaceuticals alone. It’s likely you heard or read the now-famous
parting words of Tommy Thompson when he resigned his Bush Cabinet
post on Dec. 3. If not, he said, “For the life of me, I cannot
understand why the terrorists have NOT attacked our nation’s
food supply because it is so easy to do.” Given that, you should
be able to see just how Amarillo’s patented interferon solutions
could, literally overnight, become one of the most sought-after pharmaceuticals
since penicillin came into vogue in the early 1930s.
Or, you might look at that same three-company combined capitalization
of $36 million relative to ICRD, which will post year-end revenues
of $20 million or more for 2004 – and will likely do $50 million
in 2005. All by itself! As for EMFP, it’s hard to precisely
define its proportional contribution to the triumvirate. Suffice it
to say, however, that a patented platform technology that will very
probably be picked up in 2005 by every single branch of the U.S. military,
as well as the 11th largest corporation on Earth, will be worth far
more than $36 million – likely by a factor of 10!
All of which leads me to another important point: Each of these tiny
companies already has a relationship with a global mogul. To wit:
· Amarillo’s long-standing relationship with Japan’s
multi-billion-dollar Hayashibara Group, which is also one of AMAR’s
largest shareholders.
· ICRD’s soon-to-be-announced deal with an as yet unnamed
bank-card company. The name has yet to be disclosed, but even a small
company in this sector will be an NYSE-listed Blue Chip.
· EMFP talks regularly and seriously with Itochu, an $80 billion
international giant – as well as the Pentagon, Air Force, U.S.
Army, Marine Corps and the Navy. The fact is, a contract with one
– if not all – of these monsters is so probable that it’s
almost a foregone conclusion.
Bottom line, it’s extremely rare to own three companies this
size, all at once, that have this much potential – potential
on the very verge of being fulfilled. Right here and right now! And,
it’s even more unusual, given such potential, that we can still
buy shares in each at prices much closer to their lows than their
highs.
All of which begs one obvious and final question: If I’m so
smart – and these companies are so great and their relationships
so huge – then why are their shares so cheap? In a word: Dilution.
Relative to ICRD, I thoroughly reviewed the pluses and minuses of
this in the eight-page Report on that Company. As luck would have
it – and I do mean luck – AMAR and EMFP also diluted themselves
silly in 2004. It’s similar to the one last student loan you
take out to finish medical school. It puts you in debt, but enables
you to start making a physician-sized salary. It’s akin to taking
out a home-improvement loan that reduces your equity but, dollar for
dollar, greatly increases the value of your house. That’s exactly
what each of these companies did. They created and sold lots of shares
in 2004 to position themselves for enormous revenue growth in 2005.
That’s why each of these companies did so well over the past
12 months – but their stocks did not. Does that bother me? Hell
no! Quite the opposite. By selling shares to raise funds to build
their companies, they simply gave us more time to buy more shares
at bargain prices – and at precisely the perfect moment. It’s
like finding yourself with front-row seats at Cape Canaveral –
with tickets priced at just 30 cents to 50 cents each, and the launch
sequence just seconds away.
That’s not to suggest we haven’t endured a reasonable
amount of grief getting to this point, but the important thing is
that we have arrived – and so have our companies. Like I said
at the outset, virtually everything is in place. In a few days, the
New Year will arrive as well – and I’m 100 percent convinced
that, before it’s over, it will bring us all a pile of money.
I don’t know which of our three companies will take off first
– or which will soar the highest – so your best strategy
may be to BUY all three. Or, if you already own all three, average
down on the one in which you have the highest cost basis. Either way,
now is the time to act.
Once again, have a joyous holiday season – and, as always,
thank you for listening, and subscribing,
J. David Stewart
Analyst and Publisher, The Stewart Report