THE STEWART REPORT HOTLINE
SUMMARY
Saturday, September 25, 2004
Next HotLine Recording Scheduled for Thursday, October 15, 2004
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Overview:
Push aside all the news of the election, oil prices, corporate earnings
and the economy for a moment. Think "trading range."
Reuters Newsmail Editor Dick Satran said that yesterday regarding
the general market, which has been stuck in an up-and-down, 10 percent
range for the entire year. Looking backwards, it’s probably
the narrowest trading channel in a generation. It’s a channel
that’s been compressing price activity so tightly – and
for such an extended period of time – that, when it finally
breaks out, the move will have to be substantial. I’m betting
that move will be to the upside – and that it’s no further
away than the elections, which will ultimately serve as the trigger.
There’s lots of stuff Wall Street doesn’t like, but the
one thing it really loathes is uncertainty. For now, the apparent
closeness of the Presidential race is too much to bear. But, the moment
the contest is decided, you can look for the market to rally –
and rally hard – regardless of who wins.
As Dennis Miller is fond of saying, "That’s just my opinion.
I could be wrong." As for a couple of earlier calls, we can see
now I was reasonably right …
Emergency Filtration Products, Inc. (NASDAQ/BB: EMFP): 45 Cents
"I remember a time when this Company offered nothing but a mask
for police and ambulance units – and the stock sold for 10 times
today’s price. There was no nano-technology. No military interest.
No war on terrorism. No filters for aircraft or government buildings.
"Now, at a fraction of its former price, with a highly marketable
portfolio of in-demand products – really big demand, worth probably
100 times the current market cap of the security – this is a
true steal. And forget about needing the patience of Job. The payday
is at hand … BUY this thing with both fists."
That quote – or a rough approximation if it – was delivered
in the August 16 HotLine, when EMFP was trading at 30 cents. Today,
the stock is exactly 50 percent higher, trading huge volume, and acting
like it wants to go higher still. And it will, once it breaks through
the glass ceiling at the 50-cent level.
The latest move was prompted by the Sept. 14 news release announcing
that EMFP had been awarded the government grant we’d hoped it
would receive. That grant will fund the month-long testing process
of EMFP’s nano-enhanced filter media – which, if successful,
would equate to product sales to every branch of the U.S. military,
worldwide. If the stock could move 50 percent on news of the test,
can you imagine how high it might climb if the test is successful
and the contracts are garnered? Everything we’ve seen thus far
would be dwarfed by the revenues EMFP would be looking at before year-end.
And that’s just the half of it – i.e., the government
half. I am still entirely confident commercial sales are also imminent.
In fewer than five weeks (Oct. 29, to be exact), Itochu will be in
Tucson, Arizona, to review the manufacturing facility. Between now
and then, it wouldn’t surprise me in the least if Japanese government
approval was secured, too. After all, our FDA approved the relationship
months ago, and it’s difficult to imagine any nation with a
similar agency more stringent than ours.
Once the formality of that approval is tendered, straight out of
the gate we should see real contracts for huge money. Why? Because,
as the world’s 11th largest company, really big dollars are
the only dollars Itochu knows. Continue to BUY up to 50 cents, realizing
that, once the notorious half-dollar barrier (to all penny stocks,
not just EMFP) is surpassed, the stock will have another fast run.
Amarillo Biosciences (NASDAQ/BB: AMAR): 28 Cents
This is another situation where HotLine forecasts have played well
in the market. The recent move from 22 cents to Friday’s closing
price of 28 cents represented a 27 percent jump, but I fear many of
you may have missed it.
On September 11, I suggested you "accumulate on weakness."
Right call, wrong words: The stock was never weak. Instead, it just
started inching upward, mostly in response to a small ,but meaningful
news announcement three days later. It covered a sweetheart deal Dr.
Cummins negotiated with NOBEL – a leading Turkish pharmaceutical
maker – whereby Amarillo Biosciences licensed early rights to
its low-dose interferon alpha for the treatment of Behcet’s
disease in Turkey, as well as 18 other nations with a combined population
of 365 million.
Although Behcet’s disease effects a very small percentage of
the U.S. population, it is more than 600 times more prevalent in these
other nations. That could equate to more than 100 million doses annually
in Turkey alone. This would, of course, provide substantial revenues
to AMAR. Better still, even though the agreement calls for NOBEL to
cover all costs of the clinical trials, once FDA approval is obtained,
it will be the property of AMAR. That’s the sweetheart part.
As I’ve reported numerous times, there are many near-term and
long-term applications for Amarillo’s proprietary interferon
– both for civilian medicine and in military applications to
combat agro-terrorism. This stock is not a place for serious money.
It’s anything but a blue chip. But it’s also anything
but boring and remains my long-time, long-term, long-shot favorite
to eventually surprise us with a lottery ticket-sized payoff. ACCUMULATE
under 30 to 35 cents per share.
International Card Establishment, Inc. (NASDAQ/BB: ICRD): 54 cents
After months of non-stop news releases, acquisitions and all-around
aggressive behavior, at this particular moment, I really have nothing
new to report … but you can bet the Company does. Over the next
few days, be sure to check the news – especially if you see
the volume and/or the price begin to surge.
That’s because ICRD might offer up the name of either the "major
restaurant chain" or "nationwide hospitality chain"
its working with now that the NEOS acquisition is complete. As I said
last time, both names are supposed to be big-time bell-ringers and
can only lift the current share price, which I view as obscenely cheap.
International Card Establishment is still our most intelligent and
easily our most under-priced position at this time. BUY.
As always, thank you for listening – and for subscribing,
J. David Stewart
Analyst and Publisher, The Stewart Report