THE STEWART REPORT HOTLINE
SUMMARY
Saturday, September 11, 2004
Next HotLine Recording Scheduled for Thursday, September 23, 2004
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Overview:
If you phoned the HotLine early, beginning on the morning of September
8th – or, if you’re one of several hundred subscribers
who have provided us with your e-mail address to receive updates directly
– then you already know the great news about International Card
Establishment and its acquisition of Neos Merchant Solutions. To save
you from having to listen to the same information twice, but also
give those who missed it a second opportunity to learn the facts,
I will repeat the ICRD/Neos update at the end of this HotLine.
Also, it’s rumored that additional news releases on ICRD, as
well as Amarillo Biosciences and Emergency Filtration Products are
imminent, so I’ve scheduled the next HotLine as early as September
23 – or sooner if circumstances should warrant.
As for today’s report, I’ll begin with the two stocks
that offer great and important applications relative to the War on
Terrorism – highly appropriate on this, the sadly memorable
anniversary of the 9-11 attacks.
Amarillo Biosciences (NASDAQ/BB: AMAR): 22 Cents
On August 22, the front page of the Los Angeles Times (Sunday Edition,
no less!) carried a story (with photos) titled, "Farmlands Seen
as Fertile for Terrorism." It focused on Colorado ranchers and
did not mention Amarillo Biosciences by name, but it did do a good
job of explaining agro-terrorism, why cattle are such an easy target,
and why it’s such an obvious threat. In short, the L.A. Times
used part of its front page, as well as all of page A-22, to tell
the same story subscribers to The Stewart Report read 18 months ago.
That aside, there is a new – and very good-news – release
that you should be able to access via a link on my web site (www.stewartreport.com)
come Monday afternoon or Tuesday (AMAR has to post it to its site
before we can make the connection). It’s significance is this:
In 1983, Congress wisely enacted the Human Orphan Drug Act, which
made a provision in the U.S. drug laws to ease and expedite the FDA
approval process for drugs addressing lesser-known diseases –
diseases that otherwise would affect too few people for drug development
to be economically viable. As of August 2, 2004 – and thanks
to the Bush Administration – there is now a similar act to give
financial incentives to drug development for the animal kingdom, too.
This thing is so tailor-made for Amarillo, I’m surprised Dr.
Joe Cummins’ signature was not laid down beside the President’s.
No doubt, this will open dozens of avenues for Amarillo-style research,
and facilitate extra funding for its projects in this field –
especially since AMAR’s research efforts also have direct and
obvious uses against terrorism. I do anticipate a separate funding
announcement very, very soon … authorizing enough money to carry
this Company forward for a long time to come. ACCUMULATE this stock
on down days.
Emergency Filtration Products, Inc. (NASDAQ/BB: EMFP): 28 Cents
I last spoke with President Doug Beplate on Labor Day, and he was
clearly optimistic. Apparently there’s a ton of forward motion
follow-up to all product testing and contract efforts – both
military and civilian – as was detailed for you in the August
16 HotLine. Military first:
All four branches of the United States military have now expressed
specific interest in EMFP’s technologies and, to facilitate
the testing process, they’ve agreed to abide by the lab results
of a single government facility, rather than testing EMFP equipment
independently. As such, the work is being performed by the Army’s
Edgewood Chemical Biological Center (ECBC) for the benefit of the
Army and all other military branches – an important fact that
was not made clear in recent news releases. To that end, Doug said
the ECBC wants to visit the Company before the end of the month.
Also this month, Doug will be presenting, "by invitation only,"
yet another product usage – EMFP nano filters for placement
in emergency shelters, presumably for use by both civilians and soldiers
in the event of a chemical attack.
Finally, the word on the Street is that a government grant is looking
good, and approval isn’t far off. Recent trading activity illustrating
ample buy-side volume lends authority to this rumor.
As for the civilian side of the business, Itochu – the world’s
11th largest corporation – is sending key officials from its
chemical division to meet at EMFP offices in Las Vegas. You’ll
recall that, publicly, the two have already agreed to agree on doing
business together. The only hold up was approval by the FDA (which
has been received), along with approval by Japan’s equivalent
to the FDA. It is believed that approval could come as early as next
week. After that, non-military sales could move forward very, very
quickly. So could the stock. My recommendation is to invest in more
shares now.
Odds are good that something will be signed with one of these organizations
… soon! And since all of them – be it the U.S. Army or
the Navy or the Air Force or Itochu – are global in nature,
and have appetites and checkbooks to match, you just have to share
Doug’s optimism. Why not share in his good fortune, too. BUY.
USA Biomass Corp. (NASDAQ/BB: USBCQ): 5 Cents
Immediately after the Wednesday update on ICRD, I drove up the coast
to meet with USA Biomass principals, including acting President Peter
Gyben and General Manager John Pivovaroff. I could provide a lot of
background, but I’d rather take my cue from a scene in "The
Godfather." It’s the one where Family attorney Tom Higgins,
right after his disappointing dinner with the movie mogul –
and just before the Don’s henchmen gave "bed head"
a whole new meaning – told the film producer, "My employer
insists on hearing bad news immediately." To that end, I’ll
detail the situation now:
You might recall the HotLine of August 16, in which I cautioned subscribers
that the Company "was not out of the woods," but not to
worry because, from an earlier conversation with Gyben, I was led
to believe a mere $150,000 would make USBC "right as rain."
The dollar figure was his. The flowery phrase was mine. Both turned
out to be utterly misleading – but not before a New York fund
manager and long-time Stewart Report subscriber took a flight from
JFK into John Wayne airport to "rescue" management.
He brought his checkbook. I brought one, too. Together, we’d
hoped to solve the current Catch 22 caused by unaudited numbers –
another element explained in the August 16 update.
Long story short: We were barely halfway through lunch and already
it was painfully obvious that $150,000 would not help the Company
– nor would management’s high-end, "wish-list"
figure of $450,000. The reason? It would simply take too much time
the time to get the full $450K, fetch the auditor back to Newport
to finish the job and then effect the necessary adjustments to the
monthly cost structure.
Besides, my calculations suggest a near-term need for $600,000, meaning
that, even if the non-financial goals should magically be met, in
terms of money, we’d still be looking at a five-foot jump over
a six-foot ditch. Suffice to say, with most subscribers, as well as
my friends and family deep in this thing, I left with no ambition
to leap off anything except the Brooklyn Bridge. The fund manager
was more optimistic – much more – and seems ready to continue
with efforts to raise the money.
Who knows … he might be right. Management might find in him
the "White Knight" they need. After all, this isn’t
the first time the Company has been on the mat with the count nearing
10, yet still managed to somehow get back up for still another round.
As for me, I can’t see sufficient reasons to continue the fight,
especially when the same funds could be better directed towards more
intelligent investments – like ICRD.
My advice is to HOLD if you’re hopeful – or to SELL if
you can use a tax loss. Also, be prepared to be patient. Perhaps even
frustrated. Typically, the stock doesn’t trade on high volume.
It’s not easy to liquidate 50,000 shares if the stock is only
trading 5,000 or 10,000 a day – especially when so many of you
own this stock.
Stopping myself just short of an apology, all I can say is that when
you swing for the fences with little interest in anything but a grand
slam, you’re bound to strike out occasionally. Fortunately,
the most we can lose is 100 percent, while the upside to a winner
is virtually infinite. At the end of the day, when it’s all
said and done, you’ll see my selections lying on the floor,
bleeding to death – or enjoying a double-digit race to the moon.
Mine is an "all-or-nothing" approach that typically delivers
a measure of both. Why do you think The Stewart Report has received
so much national publicity over the years?
Even though we focus exclusively on small stocks, most everything
we do is BIG. We think big, we win big – and, yes, we lose big,
too. Even a cursory review of my performance – all the way back
to 1981, when I was a stockbroker, and the subsequent years as a private
professional investor, analyst and financial publisher – quickly
proves the point:
Personally, I loathe those who compare investing – even speculative
investing – to Las Vegas. Even so, part of what I do is analogous
to gambling – except that you have the advantage, NOT the "house."
I believe this advantage is gained from my experience, my research,
my on-going due diligence, a sizable friendship network within the
industry and, as many of you know, the advantage of having a couple
of thousand subscribers who are continually sending me related information
from all 50 states, as well as a dozen nations overseas.
Even so, we do still lose from time to time. What’s worse,
when it happens, you are probably staring at your computer screen
instead of a pretty croupier standing under a sparkling chandelier
and enough free liquor to wash away the pain.
Bottom Line: Scared money never wins.
If you don’t have a stomach for the loss side of the equation,
you’d do well to sell all Stewart stocks owned. Moreover, even
though I believe The Stewart Report will outperform the market over
the long haul – most times, it is in fact a very long haul.
At least it can be – and not just in terms of time. Risk psychology
is a factor, too, same as patience. Put another way, it doesn’t
matter how much money you make if you can’t sleep at night while
you’re doing it – probably because you invested more than
you could afford to risk.
International Card Establishment, Inc. (NASDAQ/BB: ICRD): 58 Cents
As reported last Wednesday, the Neos acquisition is now signed, sealed
and delivered. Although the news release penciled out pretty much
the way I said it would in my original 8-page Stewart Report, in no
way did the predictability of its content detract from the value of
the deal, which is as follows:
In exchange for a combination of cash, debt and stock valued at $7.5
million, International Card Establishment, Inc., acquired Neos Merchant
Solutions, its 35 in-house employees and 65 outside sales agents,
and its strong customer base, which will generate between $6 million
and $9 million in revenues before the end of this year.
With companies still smoldering in fear and embarrassment from the
dirty deeds of WorldCom, Enron and others, news releases these days
are so cautious; so carefully written that, whenever financial estimates
are offered, you can bet the numbers are intentionally low-balled.
That, in part, is why The Stewart Report’s in-house revenue
estimate for the Neos operation is $9 million to $10 million for the
current year.
I also believe Neos will successfully expand its relationship with
the nameless "worldwide hospitality chain and national restaurant
chain" mentioned in today’s release (as well as in my original
Report earlier this summer). I’ll even go one step further and
say that both names are likely to be bell-ringers and that ICRD will
tell us who they are within a week or two – which can only give
more impetus to the Company, and eventually the stock.
I’ll comment on the recent price action of the stock in just
a moment, but right now I want to continue with the overall importance
of the Neos deal to ICRD. This is critical because, long term, the
real value of a company is what dictates the eventual price of the
stock, not the other way around. For the last couple of months, it’s
as if the tail has been wagging the dog. But, believe me, price anomalies
and pure gamesmanship ALWAYS give way to actual profits, real revenues
and quantifiable corporate growth. Period.
It’s almost eerie but, as always, ICRD the company is doing
everything it said it would. Look back at everything forecast in your
original Report, or in the dozen or so HotLines prior to that document,
and you’ll be surprised, if not shocked by the accuracy of my
growth forecasts. The only reason I look smart is because they are
smart. Management’s business plan is entirely viable and being
implemented with surgical precision. As a result, we’ve seen
the private offering completed; all of the institutional funding completed;
the Neos acquisition completed; and my estimate for the Company to
do at least $22 million in 2004 and $50 million in 2005 now publicly
stated, in print, someplace other than the 10th Anniversary Stewart
Report.
For a full read of the news release, you can go to our web site at
www.stewartreport.com. I’d strongly encourage you to review
the original Report, too, because I think Page 5 does a great job
of explaining not just the value of Neos as a stand-alone, but also
how nicely it braids into the overall ICRD enterprise. It’s
truly synergistic.
That was succinctly detailed today by Chairman & President Jonathan
Severn, who said, "The acquisition of Neos immediately vaults
us into the ranks of leading Gift & Loyalty companies. This is
one of the fastest-growing markets in financial services, having mushroomed
from just $20 billion in 2002 to an estimated $100 billion in 2004.
Moreover, Integrating Neos into I.C.E. will spawn multiple cross-selling
opportunities, which should increase revenues in all three of our
business units: bankcard, gift & loyalty and leasing."
So that’s a quick, but important update on the Company –
the thing we actually own a piece of. As for the stock – the
arbitrarily priced piece of paper that evidences said ownership? Well,
all I can tell you is the sad, but simple truth: In the last couple
of weeks, we’ve been burned worse than toast. The good news
is, we’re only burned on one side.
There is still some serious selling pressure on the part of short
artists. But do know this: It’s not that they disbelieve the
value of the Company. Rather, they’ve merely identified an opportunity
whereby they short the shares downward (i.e., selling stock they don’t
own) with the idea that they’ll eventually cover these short
positions with shares registered in the private placement.
So far, they’ve made money at our expense. No debating that
– and I’d be less than truthful if I tried to tell you
when they will have shorted all that they can hope to cover. However,
I can tell you this:
They have very little incentive to short ICRD much below 50-cent
mark.
In comparing the daily and monthly volume to the number of registered
shares, I don’t believe they have much more selling to do.
Every single share they’ve sold must eventually be repurchased
if they are to capture their profit.
Trading activity at the close – and even after the close –
on Friday looked as though some "covering" (buying back
of shorted shares) is now beginning to take place.
From here, I see very little downside in the stock. Very, very little.
The upside is several hundred percent – especially if you’ll
continue to take the long view of things.
BUY the heck out of this stock. It was a huge value at a buck, before
Neos, and it’s an even bigger, more predictable value today
with the Neos deal having closed.
As always, thank you for listening and for subscribing,
J. David Stewart
Analyst and Publisher, The Stewart Report